What is Yield Prophet?

Yield Prophet® is an on-line crop production model designed to present grain growers and consultants with real-time information about their crops, providing integrated production risk advice and monitoring decision support relevant to farm management. Operated as a web interface for the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), Yield Prophet generates crop simulations and reports to assist in decision making. By matching crop inputs with potential yield in a given season, Yield Prophet subscribers may avoid over- or under-investing in their crop.

The simulations provide a framework for growers and advisors to:

  • forecast yield
  • manage climate and soil water risk
  • make informed decisions about nitrogen and irrigation applications
  • match inputs with the yield potential of their crop
  • assess the effect of changed sowing dates or varieties
  • assess the possible effects of climate change.

What are the costs?

There are three costs associated with subscribing to Yield Prophet®: a subscription fee, soil sampling expenses and soil analysis charges. The total cost of subscription usually ranges between $300 and $500/paddock (ex GST). A breakdown of these costs is shown below:

Yield Prophet subscription: New subscribers and previous subscribers who return their paddock results from the previous year are entitled to receive a discount rate. BCG Members and Partners pay $175/paddock at the full rate, or $135/paddock at the discount rate. Non-members pay $230/paddock at the full rate, or $205/paddock at the discount rate. Bulk discounts are available too - growers receive 1 free paddock for every 3 paddocks subscribed, and consultants/advisors receive 5 paddocks free for their first 15 paddocks subscribed, then for every additional 3 paddocks, a further 1 for free.

Soil sampling: depends on your contractor; approximately $150/paddock (ex GST)

Soil analysis: depends on the analysis that your paddock requires and the soil testing laboratory used but between $60 and $270 per paddock.

What you get

For your subscription fee, you receive:

  • a log-in for grower
  • a log-in for grower’s consultant (if requested)
  • Help-line access for growers and consultants
  • Access to Yield Prophet workshops and training sessions for growers and consultants

How do I sign up?

Information you will need:

  • your contact details (including a working e-mail address)
  • paddock names and GPS coordinates
  • consultant’s name and e-mail address
  • soil test results for each paddock/zone being used in Yield Prophet (Yield Prophet subscription fees do not include soil sampling and analysis for initial soil conditions. Information on the requirements and costs of initial soil data are outlined in Yield Prophet® Soil Sampling Information below).
  • if you have subscribed to Yield Prophet previously, your Yield Prophet log-in details. If you do not have your login details please contact Tim McClelland.

To subscribe paddocks to Yield Prophet, Login or Create Account

See it for yourself

You can visit the Yield Prophet website (www.yieldprophet.com.au) to view previously generated reports for the BCG trial sites and gain access to help files with more information about operating Yield Prophet and how to interpret reports. Enter the username and password of "Visitor" on the Login screen.

Yield Prophet Services

Yield Prophet is a sophisticated tool with a significant number of applications and services that can support your farm business in the production and marketing of grain.

Paddock/Zone Subscriptions: Yield Prophet should be incorporated into every farm as it provides in-crop decision support and generates information that contributes to producers matching crop inputs with production potential. By registering a number of paddocks/zones with different soil types, climatic conditions and crop types across a farm, a representative sample of crop conditions should be generated.

Yield Prophet Workshops and Help Line: Individuals and businesses subscribing to Yield Prophet are entitled to the necessary assistance to ensure easy operation of the web interface and interpretation of Yield Prophet reports. A Help-line is available to assist subscribers with any problems or queries that arise in the day-to-day operation or interpretation of Yield Prophet. Subscribers are also entitled to request a workshop by means of which a member of the Yield Prophet team will provide training in the operation of the web interface and an introductory session on the interpretation of Yield Prophet reports and outputs.

Yield Prophet Reports

A number of report types are available to users of Yield Prophet to assist with management decisions in and out of the growing season.

In-season reports

Crop Report: The Crop Report is the principal report used by Yield Prophet subscribers. It contains twenty separate outputs relating to the individual crop and produces a snapshot in time with:

  • a potential yield range for grain and hay production
  • the quantity of available water and nitrogen water resources
  • the incidence of nitrogen and water stress
  • estimated and forecast phenological progress of the crop
  • the probability and incidence of water logging, frost and heat shock
  • climate forecasts and the effect on yield

This report is used throughout the growing season as an in-crop support tool for decisions related to nitrogen management, irrigation management, hay cutting, frost risk assessment, marketing, insurance, etc.

Nitrogen Comparison Report: The Nitrogen Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity or timing of applied nitrogen in different scenarios.

Nitrogen Profit Report: The Nitrogen Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Nitrogen Comparison Report.

Irrigation Comparison Report: The Irrigation Comparison Report allows subscribers to compare the effects on yield of changes in the quantity or timing of water and nitrogen applied by simulating different scenarios.

Irrigation Profit Report: The Irrigation Profit Report, using basic gross margin inputs, allows subscribers to compare the profitability of the management decisions applied in the Irrigation Comparison Report.

Out-of-season reports

Sowing by Variety Report: The Sowing by Variety Report allows subscribers to simulate different scenarios and compare yield probability distributions of crop cultivars or sowing dates. By comparing the effects on yield, growers can assess the impacts on likely crop yield of different sowing dates and cultivars prior to the growing season. Yield Prophet produces a probability curve for each scenario allowing subscribers to compare the yield effects. This report is generally used by subscribers prior to the growing season as a basis for planting decisions. It assesses the impacts of different sowing dates and cultivars on likely crop yield.

Sowing Opportunity Report: The Sowing Opportunity Report allows subscribers to generate reports that show the effect of sowing date on potential yield, as well as frost and heat shock risk relative to their specific paddock/zone, climatic conditions and chosen variety. The report shows the 100 year average nitrogen unlimited yields for crops planted from the 1st of April to the 30th of June and the associated frost and heat shock probabilities.

Fallow Monitoring Report: The Fallow Monitoring Report allows subscribers to determine the soil moisture and nitrogen levels at the time of the report. This report is generally used after crops have been harvested and feeds into the Stubble Management Report.

Stubble Management Report: The Stubble Management Report allows subscribers to compare the effect of different tillage and grazing decisions on soil nitrogen and moisture content. This report is generally used out of the growing season, between harvest and sowing, as a basis for tillage and grazing decisions.

Climate Change Report: The Climate Change Report allows subscribers to observe the potential effects of climate change on crop yields in the year 2030. Yield Prophet produces a yield probability curve for historic climatic conditions and two climate change scenarios developed by the CSIRO for comparison.

Climate Adaptation Report: The Climate Adaptation report allows subscribers to compare their crop potential using their current practice versus an adapted practice under two different climate change scenarios: ‘best case’, and ‘worst case’. Subscribers are able to review the yield potential with their current practice under these two scenarios and then "experiment" with alternative crop cultivars, plant densities, sowing window, nitrogen and irrigation applications, and stubble and tillage management to adjust to the potential changes in climate. This report allows users to form and test strategies to respond to climate change before the effects are fully realised.